Saxo Bank has released its annual outrageous predictions for 2026, coming up with eight low-probability scenarios that would trigger major financial market disruptions if they came to pass.
John Hardy, global head of macro strategy at the bank, said the outrageous predictions cover a lot of ground this year, spanning Taylor Swift helping to upend digital addiction among global youth, a US political event without turmoil and the emergence of an extra-terrestrial economy.
“While the predictions are never about being right but always about challenging consensus narratives, perhaps in 2026 smooth sailing is the new outrageous,” he said.
Although the predictions are thought experiments rather than forecasts, Saxo’s track record includes several prescient calls. The bank correctly predicted gold’s correction to $1,200 per ounce in 2013, bitcoin tripling to $2,100 in 2017 and the UK voting for Brexit following UKIP’s election surge in 2015.
More recently, its 2022 prediction of gold rocketing to $3,000 as central banks failed on their inflation mandates materialised, while two predictions from the 2025 set – Trump 2.0 disrupting the dollar and Nvidia ballooning to twice Apple’s value – remain in play.
Prediction 1: Q-Day arrives early
Saxo’s first outrageous prediction is quantum computing achieving a breakthrough that allows machines to crack current digital security standards. Cryptocurrency markets collapse as bitcoin addresses become vulnerable. Central banks open emergency funding lines while regulators order a global ‘maintenance weekend’ to upgrade payment systems.
“Fear spills into traditional finance as people lose trust in their banks and hoard cash and buy what they can hold in their hands, especially gold and silver. Gold rockets toward $10,000 as the ultimate 'no-password' asset," Saxo said.
The bank identified physical vault operators, cybersecurity firms creating quantum-resistant encryption and traditional banks with strong cash distribution as winners. Losers include cryptocurrency assets, hot-wallet exchanges and businesses built on inadequate security.
Prediction 2: Swift-Kelce wedding spikes growth
Next, a January 2026 wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce triggers a generational pivot away from digital addiction towards family life. Marriage and birth rates surge among young millennials and Gen Z as millions of ‘Swifties’ follow the couple’s decision to step back from constant online engagement and restrict their child’s technology access until age 12.
“Hundreds of millions of Swifties, the devoted fan base of Taylor Swift around the world, are inspired by the couple's lifestyle and decisions. Swift and Kelce’s focus on stepping away from constant online time and building a family triggers a global boom in young people choosing to follow suit. Marriage rates and births among young millennials and older Gen Z rise sharply as more of life goes offline," the bank predicted.
In this scenario, the IMF and World Bank revise global GDP forecasts upwards by more than one percentage point annually for five years as economic activity jumps when screen time falls. Social media companies face slower growth while housing, DIY, luxury goods and travel sectors surge.
Prediction 3: Smooth US midterm elections
Gerrymandering (or redrawing voting districts) in the 2026 US midterms provokes widespread outrage among independent voters who demand reform. Democrats win the House while Republicans retain the Senate with a reduced majority but a commission is established to redraw voting districts impartially ahead of the 2028 elections.
“Most importantly, the behaviour of politicians on both political sides generates widespread outrage. A massive campaign led by independent voters – America's largest voting bloc – pushes through the establishment of a new commission to impartially redraw voting districts across the US, with a mandate to complete new maps in time for the 2028 presidential and congressional elections,” Saxo Bank said.
Then, Americans recognise their manipulation by social media algorithms designed to drive outrage and AI-generated content erodes trust in social feeds, causing audiences to shift towards balanced voices. US Treasuries rally while social media stocks, cryptocurrency, gold and silver decline.
Prediction 4: Obesity drugs for pets
Saxo’s fourth prediction sees GLP-1 obesity drugs become available in pill form, enabling near-universal adoption among humans and, by extension, to pets. What began as medical treatment transforms into a lifestyle tool and global BMI averages across OECD nations fall by a full point, with some health systems considering subsidised GLP-1 use as preventive medicine.
“The widespread availability of the drugs as a pill to replace injection-only treatment supercharges the adoption of these drugs. Use among humans becomes near universal. What began as a medical treatment turns into a lifestyle tool, with even mildly overweight consumers cycling on and off the pills to stay trim,” the bank stated.
Healthcare and veterinary stocks rally and fast fashion does well in this scenario as consumers replace wardrobes. Food producers and restaurants face pressure from lower calorie consumption, forcing pivots to premium positioning.
Prediction 5: SpaceX IPO supercharges space economy
SpaceX achieves a public listing with a valuation exceeding $1trn after proving its Starship system is viable. The company announces capacity to deliver 100x previous annual payload volumes to low Earth orbit and opens bookings for lunar and Mars missions.
“The SpaceX IPO supercharges a new race to build entirely new space-based industries that would benefit from micro- and zero gravity conditions,” Saxo said.
“These include crystal-growing for myriad semiconductor and biopharma applications, as well as the 3D bioprinting industry, as bioprinters can print onto superstructures that don't sag due to gravity during their creation. On the Moon, an international consortium maps 25% of the lunar surface, dividing it up into blocks that are auctioned off to the highest bidder.”
SpaceX establishes orbital refuelling tankers enabling large-scale lunar and Martian bases but lunar property speculation mirrors NFT-style bubbles before crashing. Rocket companies benefit from the space race acceleration, with Saxo saying “the true extra-terrestrial economy is born”.
Prediction 6: AI model becomes Fortune 500 CEO
In this prediction, a Fortune 500 company appoints an AI model as chief executive with signing authority under strict guardrails. The system operates with a hard-coded objective balancing profit, customer satisfaction and employee satisfaction.
“The board gives the model signing authority within strict guardrails covering capital spending, pricing, logistics, hiring and M&A screening,” Saxo explained. “After outperforming peers for two straight quarters, scepticism turns to imitation as rivals unveil AI co-CEOs. A new corporate norm emerges – human vision, AI execution – backed by frameworks that make algorithms as accountable as people.”
Investors initially assign governance-risk premiums before accepting accountability frameworks, causing AI infrastructure, cloud and governance-tech stocks to surge. Meanwhile, insurers and auditors have to reinvent coverage for algorithmic management.
Prediction 7: Beijing's golden yuan challenges dollar
China’s gold holdings surpass US reserves and the country declares the offshore yuan (CNH) partially backed by gold. Holders can redeem CNH for physical gold at a conversion rate implying USD/CNH of 5.00, strengthening China's currency from levels near 7.00.
“This ‘golden yuan’ turns vaults in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong into the centre of a new global money system. It offers something the world hasn’t seen in decades: a currency tied to a tangible reserve rather than to mere government promises,” Saxo explained.
“The golden yuan promises reduced reliance on credit ratings, central bank politics and geopolitical risks, giving countries a way to trade and store value without relying on Western financial systems.”
The market impact of this prediction is the ‘golden yuan’ becoming a durable second global anchor that ends the dollar’s monopoly without replacing it. Gold passes $6,000/oz and US treasury yields rise on foreign selling.
Prediction 8: Dumb AI triggers cleanup
Finally, Saxo said poorly governed agentic AI systems could cause widespread failures across finance, logistics and manufacturing. In this scenario, misfiring algorithms trigger flash crashes, accounting irregularities force executive resignations and faulty robot commands cause accidents and fatalities.
"By 2026, so-called 'agentic AI' systems have infiltrated everything from finance to logistics. They optimise, automate, and connect – until they don't,” the bank warned.
Saxo said a new profession of ‘AI janitors’ would be tasked with rebuilding flawed systems as firms pour trillions into repairs and governments impose mandatory human-in-the-loop controls and kill switches.
Cybersecurity, audit and consulting firms see surging revenues while autonomous AI platform valuations face pressure. Investors would rotate towards companies offering resilience and proper governance.